Growth: Brussels envisages +0,4% for France in 2012

The European commission reduces its growth forecast for France in 2012, from 0,6% to 0,4%. The official forecast of Paris east of 0,5%. After a growth of 1,7% in 2011, the second economy of the euro area knows a very clear deceleration thus this year. According to the Commission, the growth should remain at the point died in first half of the year (- 0,1% in the 1st quarter, 0% with 2nd) before beginning again to the second gradually (+0,2% with 3rd and +0,2% with 4th).

At the end of January, the French government had re-examined clearly lowers by it its own growth forecast for this year, from 1% to 0,5%. The Funds international currency (the IMF) is him even more pessimistic than the European commission since it counts on 0,2% of growth of the Gross domestic product while OECD discounts 0,3%. France should thus record a growth lower than that of Germany, for which Brussels envisages 0,6%, against 0,8% with the last fall, after a rise of 3% in 2011.

Eight country in recession in the euro area 

According to the European commission, the whole of the euro area will know a recession this year, with a fold of 0,3% of its Gross domestic product. With the last fall, the Commission still counted on a growth of 0,5% for the euro area in 2012. In question: the deceleration of the real economy, the weight of the crisis of the debt, the brittleness of the markets. 

On the whole, eight countries of the euro area would be in recession this year. According to the estimates of the Commission, the euro area should join again with the semi-2012 growth, but the recovery will be weak, reflecting a very progressive return of the confidence of the companies like consumers after the plans of austerity set up in the States.

of which Italy, Spain and even Netherlands

Italy should see its GDP dropping by 1,3%, according to the Commission. Rome expects yet officially only one fold of 0,4%, whereas the Bank of Italy put on a fold of 1,2% to 1,5%, and that the IMF expects a fall of 2,2%. The fall of the awaited activity this year is explained by a marked retreat of the inner demand, because of the measurements of rigour imposed by the government. Exports, on the other hand, should grow thanks to an external strong demand.

Hard also touched Spain (- 1%), Belgium (- 0,1%) and Netherlands (- 0,9%), however regarded as one of the most solid countries of the euro area. The most critical situation relates to Greece which will undergo its fifth year of recession. The Commission awaits even a contraction of the activity more marked than envisaged (- 4,4%) against a fold of 2,8% forecast with the autumn.